A military strike on Iran by way of
Israel could still occur at a moment’s notice, but the US is now warning its
allies that any action overseas would jeopardize America’s ability to assist in
a Middle East war.
Although US President Barack Obama
and his challenger Mitt Romney both say the next administration will be aligned
with any Israeli efforts to prevent Iran from procuring a nuclear weapon, any
unilateral strike on the Islamic Republic could prevent America from offering
its service in the event of a war.
The United States currently has
military bases across much of the world, including key stations in Bahrain,
Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Oman. Should Israel decide to
strike Iran, instability in the region is expected to become rampant and
American officials fear they won’t be able to rely on troops stationed overseas
to come to their ally’s aid.
“The Gulf states’ one great fear is
Iran going nuclear. The other is a regional war that would destabilize them,” a
source in the region tells the UK’s Guardian. “They might support a massive war
against Iran, but they know they are not going to get that, and they know a
limited strike is not worth it, as it will not destroy the program and only
make Iran angrier.”
A war overseas is less hypothetical
than officials have let on, though, and could be a very likely reality. Earlier
this week, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak told London's Daily Telegraph
that his nation all but launched an assault on Iran only eight months ago when
the country was thought to be close to going nuclear. At the last moment,
though, Iran apparently diverted part of its enriched uranium to civilian
programs, prompting Israel to pull the plug on a planned preemptive aerial assault.
Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime
minister, recently went on the record with the French magazine Paris Match to
say he thinks any strike to stop a nuclear Iran would be well received, despite
warnings from others that the Middle East would erupt instantly, especially
given the rampant disruptions spurred in recent months through the Arab Spring.
"Five minutes after [an
attack], contrary to what the skeptics say, I think a feeling of relief would
spread across the region," Netanyahu said. "Iran is not popular in
the Arab world, far from it, and some governments in the region, as well as
their citizens, have understood that a nuclear-armed Iran would be dangerous
for them, not just for Israel."
Emile Hokayem, a senior fellow of
the International Institute for Strategic Studies office in Bahrain, tells the
Guardian, "I don't believe the Gulf states are praying for an Israeli
attack.”
"An attack would create
difficult problems for them on the political level. They will be called on to
denounce Israel, and they will want to stay out of it. The risk of regional war
to them is huge," he said.
On their part, Iran has vowed to
attack America if Israel decides to strike first — regardless of whether or not
there is any military action from the US.
“We will enter a confrontation with
both parties and will definitely be at war with American bases should a war
break out,” Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said in a
statement this past September
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